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Presented at the Africa Fund/APIC Press Briefing* for Members of the White House Press Corps, the Foreign Press and Other Interested Media Travelling with President Clinton to Nigeria
10:00 am United Methodist Church Office Building 100 Maryland Avenue, NE, Washington, DC
Gentlepeople of the Press, Ladies and Gentlemen: Introduction
Clinton will be the second US president to visit Nigeria in 22 years, after President Jimmy Carter did so in 1978 - incidentally during General Obasanjo's "first coming", but as military head of state. Bearing in mind that Clinton pointedly overflew Nigeria during his 11-day, 6-nation (Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, South Africa, Botswana, and Senegal) African tour in March 1998, no doubt to avoid physical contact with the unlamented late General Sani Abacha, this trip in itself represents a remarkably healthy development in the relationship between the two countries. A picture of what is to be expected at this trip, and what its outcome will be are the subject of this short presentation. I choose to frame it within the context of what to expect the chief host and guest Obasanjo and Clinton respectively to say, what I hope that Clinton really will say, and what I hope that President Obasanjo will really do. Obasanjo - What To Expect that He will Say
He will indicate profusely that Clinton's presence is already one of the "democracy dividends" that he has been talking about. He will move on to emphasise that news of the risk of Nigeria disintegrating into several mini-republics is greatly exaggerated - "everything dey kampe" - and that the ethnic tensions, Sharia palaver, and friction between Executive and Legislature are merely part of the "learning process of our nascent democracy." Secondly, he will move on quickly to ask for OUTRIGHT CANCELLATION of Nigeria-USA bilateral debt (which is less than $1 billion) as a clear signal of US's true commitment to Nigeria as one of four countries targetted for democratic nurturing, emphasing once again that much of the debt was illegally (or fraudulently) owed in the first instance, and repayments are crushing the nation financially. He will reiterate the need for US leadership in cancelling the debt of ALL developing countries, particularly those belonging to G-77 that he leads. He will protest the snub from the G-8 meeting that he got in that respect in his (Obasanjo's) visit to Japan recently. Thirdly, after welcoming the 1000 or so businessmen and women (?) who junketed in with President Clinton, he will ask for increased DIRECT INVESTMENT in Nigeria's "vibrant economy", noting that Nigeria's privatization efforts are "on course." He will in particular welcome non-oil investments, particularly in Agriculture, Energy, Technology, Infrastructure and Textiles; investments that boosts employment within the country and that increase the export profile of the country. In this regard, he will congratulate President Clinton over the signing (in May 2000) of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), and promise to nudge Nigeria into a position where it can take full advantage of the various opportunities offered therein. Fourthly, he will thank President Clinton for the little the US has done in the area of health - particularly AIDS, including the latest signing of the Global AID Tuberculosis Relief Act - but ask for more direct assistance in the bourgeoning disease of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria which has seen a 5.4% adult incidence in recent years in Nigeria. Malaria is another health hazard that needs to be tackled, Obasanjo will state. Fifthly, Obasanjo will thank Clinton for US effort in improving military-civilian relations in Nigeria through professional re-training of the military in Nigeria. He will urge more financial support for West African ECOMOG force so as to reduce its financial burden on Nigeria, and urge that Nigeria should stop being looked at as a contract mercenary nation for Western nations in West Africa in particular and Africa in general. Finally - and he may not do this - he may express the fear that he will be required to show up at the Visa Section of the US Embassy in Abuja to obtain a visa for his private trip to the US in September September 8 and 9 to meet with Nigerians abroad in Atlanta! This will be to highlight the plight of hundreds of Nigerians who in recent times have been exposed to shoddy treatment at the consulate in Walter Carrington Crescent in Lagos, following which some of our Emirs, Obas and Obis, traditional rulers all have been denied visas for very specious reasons. He might remind President Clinton of his (Obasanjo's) standing order to Nigerian embassies around the world: "Give credible visitors to Nigeria a visa within 48 hours or else you will come back home to earn naira, if you earn anything at all". Obasanjo should ask for dignified reciprocation. Clinton - What to Expect that He will say
He will urge to Military to remain firmly in their barracks. He probably will not say this - but he might apologize for the gaffe in South Africa back in 1998 when he implied that Abacha might be looked at with a wink and a nod if he downed his military uniform before contesting for presidential elections, a statement that caused massive indigestion in Nigeria at the time. President Clinton will emphasise the historical ties between the US and Nigeria, and the important trade and economic partnership, particularly in the oil industry, which both countries enjoy. He will reiterate that Nigeria is a key component in US's primary policy focus of the permanent integration of Africa into the global economy where the US can trade and invest profitably, with a secondary objective being to defend US interests from transnational threats originating in Africa. He will disclose that those objectives will be pursued through ensuring
He will thank Obasanjo for recognizing that the US's primary initiative in promoting economic growth, increased investment, and poverty reduction is the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with emphasis on open markets, provision of loan guarantees for US investors, and debt-relief to African countries with progressive economic policies. Identifying inclusive, transparent governance and respect of human rights as fundamental to economic development, President Clinton will state that the United States government will work with Nigeria to strengthen and promote democracy on the African continent. Noting that armed conflicts remain a significant retardant to economic growth in Africa, Clinton will hail Nigeria's monumental role in conflict resolution - as the leader of ECOMOG - in Liberia and Sierra Leone. He will pledge increased funding through the African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI), whose primary objective is to build an African capacity to undertake peacekeeping and relief operations. He will indicate bluntly that Nigeria's transnational threats to the US include diseases such as AIDS and malaria, international crime (such as Advanced Fee fraud "419") and narcotics trafficking (where Nigeria is a major transit center), and that the two countries must work together to combat such threats through anti-fraud law enforcement and airline personnel training. In this respect, President Clinton will indicate that he has just signed into law the H.R.3519, the "Global AIDS and Tuberculosis Relief Act of 2000," which represents the latest U.S.effort in the long-term global fight against HIV/AIDS and its related threat of tuberculosis, and will also hail the enactment of the Anti-Corruption law in Nigeria, and urge its enforcement. He will also pledge to do everything possible to ensure that any Nigerian loot by public officials found on US soil will repatriated to Nigeria - that is within the legal parameters of the US. Finally, President Clinton will probably announce a modest debt relief for Nigeria - maybe half-off our bilateral debt of just under $1 billion, and get a few businessmen the photo-opportunity of signing million-naira project contracts (some old, some new) with Nigeria! Clinton - What He Should Say
He may do well to lay out several examples of how what he had wanted to achieve were thwarted by the US Congress, and how he had to work closely with the Congress to achieve the booming economic success which will be his legacy. He must be blunt to explain to Obasanjo that the parity between the Executive and the Legislature is a practical myth, and that except Obasanjo one day hopes to play a Peru's Fujimori or Venezuela's Chavez in Nigeria by extra-constitutionally emasculating the peoples' parliament, he had better work to reduce constant tension between the Executive and the Legislature. Secondly, President Clinton might urge some members of Congress traveling with him to have a private meeting with legislators and tell them that their business is to legislate to make the lives of their constituents better, not to act as contractors for furniture, street lights and computers. To hammer in the point, he might get one of such US congressmen who was a millionaire before he became a congressman, who is currently sharing a town-house in downtown Washington with another colleague, and has put all of his companies in blind trust - but will return after his stint in congress to still be a millionaire! Maybe President Clinton would kill two birds with one stone by saying all the above in his address to the Joint National Assembly - if it holds. Thirdly, as an object lesson of such Executive-Legislature cooperation, Clinton should ANNOUNCE a total cancellation of Nigeria's bilateral debt, but indicate that it will still be up to the US Congress to approve the bill that he will be sending up to APPROPRIATE the required money. That Congress might not approve should not be used as a foil any longer by Clinton to delay this politically important step, which will certainly put pressure on the international community to look deeper into their collective pockets for greater debt relief not only for Nigeria but for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. For goodness sakes, President Clinton should not tie Nigeria's "winning" of debt relief explicitly to any kind to IMF one-size-fits-all conditionalities - the letters "I-M-F" make developing countries break out with measles - but to "best practice" economic management methods applicable to Nigeria, even if those may in some cases tally with IMF conditionalities. Fourthly, another blunt statement Clinton should make is to indicate that outside of the extractive industries - that is oil - and no matter how many foreign travels President Obasanjo makes to sell Nigeria, Nigeria CANNOT expect a single important new investment without the Nigerian government focusing on and committing to:
He should indicate that just as Nigerians abroad - who should be the arrowhead of new investment in Nigeria - might not return home or invest in the absence of these parameters, one would be hard-pressed to expect foreigners to be so keen. Fifthly, and also in relation not only to safety but also to democratic stability, Clinton should indicate to Obasanjo that he should not minimize the tensions going on around the country and the clamor for "true federalism". Rather he should quickly open up a "National Conversation" - if he does not want to call it a Sovereign National Conference - with the Nigerian people that might lead to a New Constitution agreeable to all the people of Nigeria. Maybe he should quote a few sections from our 1999 Constitution and indicate how they are antithetical to true federalism as he knows it. Maybe a non-Nigerian saying the same thing to President Obasanjo on Nigerian soil might convince the General. Finally, in January 2001, and at 54, Clinton will be stepping down as President, still a rather young man. He should announce in Nigeria that his ambition in the foreseeable future as a private citizen will be as a catalyst for economic emancipation of Africa, particularly South of the Sahara. That would be a nice gesture. Obasanjo - What He should Do
President Obasanjo should then simply ask for prayers for humility and wisdom to deal with the complex political, economic and social situation in Nigeria. Clinton has been praying quite publicly recently after his turbulent encounters with Kenneth Starr. President Obasanjo needs such prayers. Prologue I still nurse a faint hope that he will take the time to dash from Abuja to Port Harcourt and the Niger-Delta, to Kano and the Muslim/Sharia North and to Lagos, the economic nerve-center of Nigeria to see for himself some of the vibrancy as well as grinding poverty that most Nigerians still face, and to parry the investment disincentive that Nigeria is truly not safe even for an American president to venture out of his hotel in Abuja. So what will be the legacy of Clinton's trip? If he says what he should say, and does what he should do as outlined above, then he would have done the very best that a lame-duck five-months-more US president can be expected to. He can then leave the rest to Al Gore or George W. Bush; he probably prefers the former to the latter, but that should be up to the American people, including Nigerian-Americans. At the same time, the overwhelming amount of work is to be done by Nigerians for Nigerians in Nigeria - and that is the truth. Thanks for listening.
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