Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
Burtonsville, MD, USA
Let me however make a prediction: The Federal government will TRIUMPH in this case after a rather short hearing because the 1999 Constitution is VERY CLEAR as to who controls the resources in question: It is the Federal Government. I do not even think that the States are arguing about that. Rather they seek a change of that constitution in line with "True Fiscal Federalism", and those who are most aggrieved are pushing the envelope in terms of passing local laws that VIOLATE the constitution to show their resolve and test that of the federal government.
That is a better alternative to violence, which, while adoptable by unorganized or militantly organized individuals, is no option for a constitutionally organized state government.
If the Federal government feels, as the trial goes on, that it will not prevail over the wider issue of resource control, it will seek to narrow it to the issue of onshore/offshore dichotomy wherein, to my mind, it is on much surer footing, constitution or no constitution, for I believe that the International Law of the Sea supports the Federal position on who controls offshore waters. Whether the Federal government wishes to concede a portion or all of those waters is up to the FG.
I believe that it should concede a portion - but not all - to the extent that that portion affects the fishing livelihood and environmental fears of the onshore people, and it involves the investment of their direct sweat equity.
We must not forget that what the Obasanjo 1979 Constitution did, and which was ossified in the Abacha 1999 Constitutions, was to institute bad laws that stand true federalism on its head. What the Federal government is now trying to do is a preemptive, delaying tactic - the suit might stop the states in their forward tracks - and also pull a publicity stunt to get the Supreme Court apparently to "legitimize" a bad law.
The best that the states can expect is for the Supreme Court to say that the laws should be changed, but that its "hands are tied." What the states should do, particularly the littoral ones, is to use this opportunity to mount a public relations campaign to state their case before the people of Nigeria, as well as continue their preparations for a Sovereign National Conference or Conference of Nationalities which should be convened with or without goverment support.
There is a maxim: "be careful what you ask for, you might just get it."
This maxim might yet apply to the Federal government in this its rather unique and welcome suit.
We shall see.
Read The News Story: Govt sues states over resource control