It is a region, which has captured both local and international attention. Why? This is largely because the exploitation of its petroleum resources and
the mode of appropriation of the wealth derived there from over the last three decades have caused social distress, conflict and environmental destruction.
The region is also an ecological niche with global preservative significance given its biodiversity especially of wetland and mangrove resources.
Just last week, manager of the region's 88-year old Port Harcourt Port complex alerted the Federal Government that the multi-billion naira structure may
sink if it does not take urgent remedial measures. According to the worried Port manager Anya Kalu, related engineering survey had shown massive
structural weakening of the premier seaport east of the Niger.
If Kalu's warning addressed a smaller patch of real estate, that of renowned geologist Professor Dagogo Fubara put the threat in a larger perspective.
"The ground of the Niger Delta is sinking relative to the sea level or the sea level is rising at the rate of 10 centimetres," the one time Dean
of the Institute of Geo-science and Space Technology, Rivers State University of Science and Technology had warned the Federal Government some seven years
earlier. "In the last 10 years, we determined that within the next 30 years the rise would be about 70 centimetres and if that happens about 40
kilometres of the Niger Delta will submerge."
Expressing concern that Nigeria had no programme to monitor mid-sea level had also urged the government to tackle the environmental problems of the Niger
Delta urgently to avert natural disaster.
Region's Profile
Coined by the Greek historian Herodotus in the 5th Century BC to describe the Nile Delta, deltas are discrete shoreline protuberances formed where rivers
enter oceans, semi-enclosed areas, lakes or lagoons and supply sediments faster than it can be re-distributed by basinal processes. Throughout time, the
formation of river deltas has greatly impacted the flow of rivers, the settlement of civilisations and the convergence of bodies of waters.
The Niger River has the ninth largest drainage area of the world's rivers and the third largest in Africa. The river drains into the Niger Delta, which is
one of the world's largest wetlands, encompassing over 20,000 square kilometres. It is composed of four ecological zones - coastal barrier islands,
mangroves, freshwater swamp forests and lowland rainforests.
Nigeria's mangrove forest is the third largest in the world and the largest in Africa. Over 60 percent of this are in the Niger Delta. This region's
freshwater swamp forests are the most extensive in West and Central Africa. With the high rate of deforestation in the rest of the country, the freshwater
swamp forest will soon become the largest forest zone in the country. Whereas most of the lowland rainforest is now derived savannah, the smaller barrier
island forests are largely intact.
The defining characteristic of the delta ecosystem is a dynamic equilibrium between flooding, erosion and sediment deposition. The sediment input into
this region particularly during seasonal floodings, and constant erosion of the coastline has gone on for millions of years. However the construction of
dams along the course of River Niger over the last 35 years has disrupted the hydrological balance by significantly modifying water-flow regime and
sediment deposition. It is estimated that around 70 percent of the sediment transport via the rivers through the delta and into the sea have been lost
because of the dams.
Despite its vast oil reserves the region remains poor. GNP per capita in the Niger Delta is below the national average. The total population of the core
delta region - Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states is estimated to be around eight millions, with 70 percent living in rural communities.
In terms of natural resources, the Niger Delta is the richest part of the country. However, notwithstanding its tremendous natural and human resource
base, the region's potential for sustainable development remains unfulfilled and geological/climatological changes, environmental degradation and economic
woes are threatening its future.
Over 30 years of oil development have not brought significant benefits to the region. Resource-use decisions are being driven by a lack of development,
poor health, stagnant agricultural productivity, and very limited opportunities in urban areas, rapid population growth and tenuous property rights.
An apparent appreciation of these conditions has nudged the Federal Government into deploying programmes to address these unflattering conditions. The
Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), a platform for the focussed development of the region, a brainchild of President Olusegun Obasanjo is one such
programme. This effort supplants General Sanni Abacha's OMPADEC.
Doomsday Scenarios: Sea-level Rise
Several related studies have revealed trends in global warming and their possible impact on sea-level rise in West Africa and Nigeria. According to one
such study funded by the Swedish Academy of Sciences in the mid nineties, the Niger Delta is particularly at risk because of its low elevation over
extensive areas. The risks are also high because erosion and flooding are widespread and severe in many areas.
A projected sea-level rise of about one metre this century would trigger flooding over about 18,000 square kilometres or two percent of the country's land
area. This is the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario. Should this happen, much of the present economic activities in the delta region
including oil and gas production, agriculture and fisheries would be disrupted.
Up to 80 percent of the region's population would be forced to migrate to higher ground and property damage is estimated to exceed 20 billion dollars.
Even the most conservative scenario, a sea-level rise of 20 centimetres would put an area of over 2,700 square kilometres at risk.
Geological Subsidence
According to Dr P.C Nwilo of the Department of Survey and Geo-informatics, University of Lagos, "In the 90's, a project targeted at studying coastal
erosion and subsidence was conceived by the Federal Government and jointly funded with the European Union (EU). The project brought together, Professors
Fubara, Ijeoma, Asangwe and myself." Nwilo who teaches survey, geo-infomatics and environmental/coastal management further told THISDAY that two
reports were produced from the effort - on documentation and on collated data. However the project ended inconclusively due to political tension in the
country then.
Explaining the phenomenon of subsidence Nwilo revealed that this is known to take place in an environment like the Niger Delta, "where you have a
large deposition of sediments of recent origin and where you have mining taking place - like oil and gas exploitation." The subsidence phenomenon in
the case of the Niger Delta, the survey lecturer said can be classified into two - natural and anthropogenic.
The first example is caused by the watering of the sediments, which because of its recent origin will still be undergoing compaction while the second is
caused by human activity. Commenting on the reported slow sinking of Port Harcourt Port complex, Nwilo said it could be caused by subsidence. "Let me
say that if there is serious subsidence occurring, you will observe vertical cracking in walls of buildings and other structures because there is uneven
settlement. When you add subsidence to the global rise in temperature the former becomes a major factor because it exacerbates the impact of the global
rise in sea-level Unfortunately, no serious work has been done on that."
Observing regretfully that the country lacked data Nwilo further advised that Nigeria should move beyond ad hoc arrangements. "We can start by
gathering data. The country must focus on getting data and training related manpower."
Epilogue
Even as the governors of the bounteous Niger Delta realm square off with the Federal Government over resource control - and the old symphony of
under-development plays out - the new geological and climatological challenge can certainly not be ignored. According to Dr Jonathan Amakiri, Executive
Secretary of the Niger Delta Environmental Survey (NDES),
"The NDES has developed the most powerful tool for managing the Niger Delta, as never done before, in terms of decision support to plans for
infrastuctural and general development." The primary objective of the NDES, according to the platforms chairman, Mr Gamaliel Onosode, is to describe
the natural resource base of the area, analyse changes over time, the factors responsible for this change and to formulate strategies and action plan for
effective management of the environment to improve the quality of life of the people and achieve sustainable development.
Did their quite extensive survey address the new subterranean and climatological threats? Only time - and a speedy well-thought-out government
intervention would tell.
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