On January 19, 2001, The Ndigbo from all nooks and crannies of the world are expected to meet in Enugu under the aegis of the Ohaneze to discuss their way forward in Nigeria.
There is likely to be a lot of talk of marginalization, both by the low and the high, among other weightier issues.
There is abundant evidence of that marginalization, whether in historical revenue allocation figures (see my SUNDAY MUSINGS - The Un-Federal Nature of Nigeria's Fiscal Federalism) or in the Petroleum Trust Fund expenditures under Buhari that were once provided at the beginning of the Obasanjo tenure.
The causes of such a state of marginalizatioin would be both INTERNAL to the Igbo as well as EXTERNAL.
Not being Igbo, I am not completely competent to speculate about the INTERNAL political, social and cultural dynamics.
However, below, I speculate on some of what I call the "institutional marginalization" of the South-East zone (which forms the core of the Igbo nationality) based on its physical characteristics and an EXTERNAL factors to the SE: the 1999 Constitution and its requirements for revenue allocation.
In Nigeria at the moment, six political zones are recognized as follows (I have included the States and the number of local governments of each zone in brackets):
South-West SW - Ekiti (16), Lagos (20), Ogun (20), Ondo (18), Osun (30), and Oyo (33)
South-East SE - Abia(17), Anambra (21), Ebonyi (13), Enugu (17), and Imo (27)
South-South SS - Akwa-Ibom (31), Bayelsa (8), Cross-River (18), Delta (25), Edo (18), and Rivers (23)
as well as the Federal Capital Territory FCT (Abuja).
How does the above information and others presented in Table 1 below figure into the institutional marginalization? The reasons are as follows: with respect to -
The number of states, the SE has the least number.
Square area (land mass), SE has the least size.
Population, SE has the least population (according to 1991 census).
The number of local governments, SE has the least number.
Population density, SE has the highest density.
Derivation - much of which is from oil in Nigeria at the moment.
Need - which in turn obviously relates to 1-5 above - SE has to compete with others in the political arena.
Possibly malice due to suspicion, SE has the highest index, because of the Biafra War of 1967/1970 following an attempt to secede by this zone, and irredentist moves to recover that (deferred?) dream.
Now, the first seven indices are what go DIRECLTY into revenue allocation in Nigeria, and the disadvantage of the SE relative to most other political zones in five of them leads to institutional "marginalization", even if malicious marginalization (Factor 8) - which one believes is the object of the real complaint about "marginalization" - were not in
existence.
All of these matter only because the Federal government presently acts like Father Christmas to every other level of government, doling out money that does not really belong to it to those to whom it belongs.
The solution is that the earlier each political zone determine its own NEEDS and can act to LARGELY fulfil those themselves, AND the earlier our Ndiigbo compatriots stop increasing the suspicion (Factor # 8), the happier our SE friends are likely to be in a strong, united, secular and truly Federal Republic of Nigeria.
The obvious solution is therefore to demand RESOURCE CONTROL, and even after then to demand EQUAL TREATMENT OF ALL ZONES FROM THE CENTER irrespective of number of states and local governments. For example, national censuses will then not have to be manipulated.
That is why one would hope that the Ndiigbo meeting of later this week would build upon what the Southern Governors Forum (whose last meeting was in Enugu last week) has been saying and doing is lately, and why the Ndiigbo Forum should unequivocally demand a Sovereign National Conference to correct these anomalies in a comprehensive and holistic manner.
It is my firm belief that talk about Confederations, etc. should be deferred to such an SNC.
I rest my case.
Table 1: Comparative Zonal Analysis of Some Revenue Allocation Parameters
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