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Sunday February 25, 2001
Back in November 1998, when the presidency of Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo was still an unseen seed in the womb of time, I wrote an essay called "The Coming Diarchies", in which I placed ex-military guys Obasanjo, Marwa, Danjuma, IBB, Akhigbe, Ogbemudia, Buhari, etc. in some permutation of presidential succession.
A recent piece ["2003 ...OBJ, IBB and 'Others'"; This Day, February 24] by Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe (FAN) of the ABN/June 12 fame, no mean man to ignore, brings that prospect back, at least of IBB succeeding OBJ.
I must confess that I was impressed with FAN's "analytical depth" in this one - if the cynical will not replace that with "inside knowledge" - and courage in expressing himself. The danger of ensuing "pseudo-military" diarchies are clearly there for every eye to behold, and to ask a
question: whither our country?
Some will raise their hands and slam it to the table: "IBB? Never!" My hand still hurts when I replaced "IBB" with "OBJ" and performed the same frustration-induced act two years ago. OBJ has been my president for two years now, and I got to live with it for the next 2 to 6 years, and get
over it. "Man proposes, but God disposes."
Nzeribe's caution to our South-Eastern compatriots over their clamor for "Igbo presidency" represents a master-piece of courage and realism. It was best he said it, lest the usual accusation of anti-ness. One would hope that this issue will be resolved amicably and wisely, coupled with the seemingly unending "which-man-pass-man politics of protocol" between former Vice-President Ekwueme (the highest elected civilian Nigerian of Igbo extraction) and former Biafran Head of State Odumegwu Ojukwu (the Nigerian of Igbo extraction with the highest unelected office during Biafra), as well as the 8 trillion Naira Biafran reparation bill before the Oputa Panel - payable by the rest of Nigeria only from oil proceeds, and capable of bankrupting Nigeria, Incorporated as we know it.
Quite frankly, the move for presidency and the call for such a huge financial reparation represent a curious mix of conflicting issues.
Also quite frankly, the problem of Nigeria right now is not who rules Nigeria, but what kind of Nigeria is ruled over. That is why some of us call incessantly for a Sovereign National Conference to yield a Popular Constitution, a new compact between the governed and the government. That is my major concern about this quest for "Igbo presidency" or "Nigerian presidency of Igbo extraction" - which should be refined really as "elected executive presidency" since Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe was once "unelected non-executive" president.
Who really wants, insists so much, to be president of this kind of a country, with this kind of constitution, with this kind of dictatorial presidential power, except he has a sinister motive, people would suspiciously ask? When it is properly re-structured, who would worry much
who is president - whether it is Yoruba, or Igbo or Nupe or Urhobo?
That is the day we should all pray for!
Coming to the OBJ/IBB issue, and reading my tea-leaves, it is a pity to say so, but under the political and electoral system that we currently have in Nigeria, OBJ and IBB are the formidable candidates to beat come 2003. OBJ was IBB's trial balloon - and the balloon floated perfectly! I
mean, if OBJ "had no money", got "serious money" from IBB, debated no one, barely got out of prison before being (s)elected into the presidency, why the heck not me, IBB should be asking? What would I do with the rest of my life anyway, he would be asking himself!
The fact of the matter is that a straight AND fair head-to-head contest between Obasanjo and IBB either in February 1999 or today would have seen/will see IBB beating OBJ hands down. If IBB had not annulled the 1993 June 12 elections, he would not really be the ogre some people think
of him today - see how many Nigerians abroad were so riled up when they heard he was coming to the US for the Abubakar Foundation event yesterday - never mind that he might have allegedly done some pretty bad stuff before 1993. I have in mind Dele Giwa, SAP and Gulf Oil boom, depreciation of our Naira, etcheram, ad nauseum.
If IBB had not annulled June 12, he would have been the OVERWHELMING FAVORITE to take over from Abiola in June 2001 after Abiola's two terms! I might have been one of the people pointing to Option A4, etc.! :-)
But why I agreed with Nzeribe over the IBB/OBJ issue was that he was very perceptive (in my mind): today, IBB will not risk contesting against OBJ come 2003 because IBB will clearly win and then the country will explode, not because of the North (where he is still loved) or the South-East (where he can be tolerated; after all, "my wife is from Asaba, and you must have heard that the South-East did not do too badly under me; you were not particularly against June 12 cancellation anyway, were you?" he would say) but because of the South-West, which cannot bear the sight of IBB after the June 12 cancellation and would certainly take OBJ, warts and
all, or anybody else fo that matter over IBB.
It would be June 12 all over again.
But, knowing IBB and his knack for the sly, he would risk a come-back if OBJ chose not to run, or he would wait for OBJ to exhaust his second term in 2007, then return with his gap-toothed smile and charm. (I am yet to meet someone who knows IBB personally who has a bad word to say about him.) The country would still explode, but its force may be less, especially if OBJ has improved the human, social and economic conditions of the country in the interim, and particularly if he devolves power in his second term, which, fox that he is, he might be planning to do as we speak.
My final plea? Nothing in our rules currently stops IBB from running, but if IBB really loves the country, he would not run for the presidency now or in the future, because sometimes we may get what we pray for from God, and it may not be tidy. We may not be able to survive the political tectonic plates' movement that ensue.
In the time-being, well-meaning Nigerians should continue to urgently push for structural reforms: true federalism, devolution of power, resource control, electoral reform, etc. - and the Sovereign National Conference as the single veritable vehicle for such a rapid transformation.
But of course, I am sure that some will say that my tea-leaves may be affecting my thinking again.
Have a good Sunday.
THISDAY
[story excerpt] Four distinct interest blocs are clearly discernible at the starting line for the anticipated presidential election in year 2003.
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