November 5, 2000
I am a member of no political party in Nigeria, but my strong sympathies are with the Alliance for Democracy (AD). The permanent split of AD at its convention on November 1 comes as no particular surprise, and merely completes the new arithmetic (or is it differential calculus?) of multiparty maneuverings in Nigeria.
In this short piece, I read the tea leaves and make some projections.
The Alliance for Democracy (AD)
On November 1, this party had two conventions, with two different sets of new officers as follows:
| |
Adebayo-Led NCC
(approved by INEC)
Abdulakadir Faction |
Falae-Led Convention
(not approved by INEC)
Mamman Faction |
|
National Chairman |
Alhaji A.A. Abdulkadir |
Amb. Y. Mamman (NW) |
|
Deputy National Chairman |
Chief Mike Koleoso (SW) |
Chief Ayo Adebanjo (SW) |
|
Vice National Chairman |
Alhaji A. Alakija (NC)
Mr. Benson Atanga (NE)
Alhaji Tudum Wada (NW)
Charles P. Iloegbulam (SE)
Charles Eno (SS)
Sen Chief A. Fasanmi (SW) |
Alhaji Salisu Musa (NC)
Alhaji G.B. Ahmed (NE)
Comrade Adamu Song (NW)
Chuba Cel Egolum (SE)
Mr. Niyi Afuye (SW) |
|
National Secretary |
Dr. Chudi Nwike (SE) |
Chief Okwu Maxi (SE) |
|
Deputy National Secretary |
Dr. Femi Babalola |
|
|
Assistant National Secretary |
Noah Adeyemi (NC)
Alhassan Sultan (NE)
Umar Farouk (NW)
Hon. F Ogenechi (SE)
Dr. Ken I. Mordi (SS)
Rev. Tunji Adebiyi (SW) |
Rev. O.O. Obioha (SE)
Mr. T. Ajasin (SW) |
|
National Treasurer |
Dr. Stella Dorgu (SS) |
Mr. Mike Baah (SS) |
|
Deputy National Treasurer |
Mr. Lafiu Sabu |
|
|
National Financial Secretary |
Mr. Yunana Shibkau (NW) |
|
|
Deputy Nat. Financial Secretary |
Alhaji Samaila Hassan Yusuf |
Alhaji I.A. Jimoh (NC) |
|
National Publicity Secretary |
Chief Rafiu Jafojo |
Bar. Supo Sonibare (SW) |
|
Deputy National Publicity Secretary |
Rev. Dr. M. Abubakar (FCT) |
Mr. Jimmy Imoh (SE) |
|
National Legal Advisor |
Henry Dickson |
Mr. S. Asemota (SS) |
|
Deputy National Legal Advisor |
Alhaji Mohammed B. Umar |
|
|
National Welfare Officer |
Chief Segun Adegoke |
Chief M. Odunrinde (NC) |
|
Deputy National Welfare Officer |
Hajia Hassana Sajo |
|
|
Ex-Officio Members |
Mr. O. Obisesan (NC)
Alhaji M. Kwairanga (NE)
Alhaji Yerimba Damburam (NW)
Mazi Chidinma Okoro (SE)
Chief Tony Amadi (SS)
Alhaji Kola Oseni (SW) |
Alhaji Yomi Alliyu (SW) |
| |
|
|
The above list of officers appears to be reasonably federally-characterized, with posts inflation to satisfy the troops, one cannot fail to observe. So why all the calumny against AD, I wonder? Calling a good dog a bad name just to hang it, ehn?
Anyway, the approval of the Adebayo-led convention by INEC came with the most blatantly partisan statements that can by made by Shehu Musa, the acting Chairman of INEC, who commended my Governor Adebayo for:
"..........organising a successful national convention...[To] The newly elected chairman of AD and all executive members, we in INEC feel very happy today that we have come to the end of a very long journey. We had expected the convention to be conducted in July, but this is November. Nevertheless, it is better to be late than never. We are grateful to Almighty God that detractors of AD did not succeed in destroying Alliance for Democracy...
Today, the position of INEC about making sure that the crisis in AD is solved constitutionally, the election conducted by the convention committee has vindicated us (INEC)....We (INEC) wish AD the best of luck. We want the whole country to know that the National Convention Committee duly informed the INEC about its agenda on congresses held at ward, local government and the national level. All our officials were involved in the process. We are not only supervising the root, but we have also supervised the foundation and the building itself"."
The Guardian, Friday November 3, 2000
All that is left is for former Census Chief Alhaji Shehu Musa, who has a knack to be at the right place at the right time when (controversial) counting is to be done, to be given an AD party card.
Well, the party is now split into the Afenifere-AD (AD-1), led by politician Falae, and the Non-Afenifere-AD (AD-2), led by politician Ige, and present Justice Minister and Attorney-General. To my mind, the remote cause of the split is undoubtedly the selection of Falae over Ige as presidential candidate for AD (and ultimately of the APP/AD coalition back in February 1999), from which shock Ige still has not recovered.
The nation would probably have not recovered either if Ige it was who had been beaten by Obasanjo in national elections. We thank God for that, in a perverse way. The immediate cause? A need by Obasanjo to secure, with Ige's assistance, a firm party base in Yorubaland, with AD-2 being the vanguard and the heart of a new national party politics re-arrangement.
While Adesanya-led Afenifere will remain the "Baba Lehin Ogba" (the supportive Grandfather) of AD-1, the newly constituted and Alayande-Thompson-led, all-comers-are-welcome Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), hurriedly inaugurated before the November 1 convention, with Diya, Arikesola and Adedibu inscrutably allowed to play such prominent roles in their opening volley, would be that of AD-2.
Despite denials, the proverbial Jacob posing as if his is the hand of Esau is of course President Obasanjo, who has taken advantage of his being Yoruba to further muddle historical loyalties in Yorubaland, and attempt to weaken resolves such as the Sovereign National Conference, restructuring and autonomy under a True Federalism and the like in that political zone, and to smash any vestiges of Awo-puritanism. He will not succeed in that dubious venture - wallahi tallahi! [my slips are showing, I know] - but he sure will try. Hopefully, we will not all be consumed in the process.
The senatorial spread (2 senators for AD-1 and 17 for AD-2) and gubernatorial spread between AD-1 (Ogun's Osoba and Ondo's Adefarati) and AD-2 (Oyo's Adesina, Osun's (shaky) Akande, my Ekiti's Adebayo and Lagos's Tinubu) is surprising only in one instance: Tinubu. His bait? The draw may be more than the power of Obasanjo's incumbency - but enough said. Tinubu's historical vulnerability makes his choice of new bedfellows very unwise indeed, friend to friend.
So what are the prospects for the Alliance for Democracy come 2003?
From the above analysis, by that time, three sub-parties will have emerged:
- AD2003-1 - Original AD
- AD2003-2 - Obasanjo's AD
- AD2003-3 - Non-original, Non-Obasanjo, Disenchanted Peoples AD.
So let us keep watching.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
This party in power has the distinction of also being its own opposition party - and a powerful opposition party at that! The ever-increasing bitter tussles between the Executive and the Legislature amply bear that out.
So what are the issues here with the PDP? Fairly complex, yet fairly simple at the same time.
There are several extant factions at the initial stages:
- The PDM faction of Yar'Adua - to which Obasanjo/Atiku belong;
- The NPN faction (with Awoniyi and Ekwueme as prominent members);
- The Military faction - in which past military actions were to be protected in a new civilian dispensation.
- The Power-seekers faction, who, looking at the all the above calculations, felt that PDP was the party to be in if they were to drink from the national treasure.
There are quite a few people in PDP, who shall remain nameless, who belong to ALL the factions above - the proverbial opportunists! However, all of these factions have been blindsided by:
- the unexpected entrance of the political Sharia, coupled with
- the stinginess and dictatorial obduracy of Obasanjo (some of which accounts for his running battle with the legislature) and
- his resolve not to be UNFAIR and not to UNNECESSARILY punish his Yoruba people for not voting massively for him in his presidential elections.
So, I believe that there are four political PDP sub-parties that will emerge on the road to Year 2003:
- PDP2003-1: The PDM PDP
- PDP2003-2: The Sharia PDP
- PDP2003-3: The Economically and Socially Marginalized Peoples PDP
- PDP2003-4: The Power-Seeking Peoples PDP
The All Peoples Party (APP)
This is the strangest party of the three, and describing it as a party is really an overstatement. Run essentially by three people (Olusola Saraki, Yusuf Ali and Umaru Shinkafi (more silently)), it is kept constantly in the news by the voluble duo of (contested) Chairman Yusuf Ali, Publicity and National Secretary Chief George Moghalu who are constantly asking Obasanjo to resign - or else! Or else what, one might ask?
Presenting a front more united that it really is, the APP has also been blindsided by Sharia, and I see two subparties emerging in 2003:
- APP2003-1: The Sharia APP
- APP2003-2: The Non-Sharia APP
What will the Ashes of AD, PDP and APP be like?
Overall, the current messy party situation was a result of a rushed transition programme which threw up strange bedfellows as the mad rush to ensure that Obasanjo emerged as the presidential candidate by all means necessary was being initiated, and a counter-rush to ensure that Western Nigeria (perjoratively referred to as the South-West during the Abacha period, and unwittingly being adopted even by the Yoruba) was not railroaded in the process.
So what re-alignment of forces should we expect for Year 2003, what new parties, and how will they constituted from the above sub-parties?
They are as follows, from my tea leaves:
- NewParty2003-1 = AD2003-1
- NewParty2003-2 = AD2003-2 + PDP2003-1 + PDP2003-4 + APP2003-2
- NewParty2003-3 = PDP2003-2 + APP2003-1
- NewParty2003-4 = AD2003-3 + PDP2003-3
Note that whether Obasanjo and Atiku Abubakar will be in the same NewParty remains unclear, because a lot of water - and hopefully not blood - will still pass under the bridge between now and 2003.
Furthermore, there might be an initial attempt to re-align along the same present three-party lines, but uproar from the disenchanted and marginalized, as well as jockeying for advantage by the traditional party chieftains, will cause INEC to relax its rules on party formation, and will lead to formation of more parties such as the fourth one, NewParty2003-4.
However, at least three additional generically-identified parties should and WILL form if they are smart:
- NewParty2003-5 = Ethnic Peoples Parties, because they do not figure strongly in any of the above parties. Examples could surely be the Igbo PP, the Yoruba PP, the Ijaw PP.
- NewParty2003-6 = The Youthful Peoples Parties, because, quite frankly many people of "our" younger generation are tired of the shenanigans of these old men fighting old battles and backstabbing each other and marginalizing "us".
- NewParty2003-7 = Party of Independents, who just want no party affiliation, and want to be voted for on their own recognizance.
Thus I see a total of nine, possibly ten, political parties in Year 2003 and an option for Independent candidacy emerging.
One can only hope that two, possibly three, of these parties will be based PURELY on IDEOLOGY, and nothing else.
But will 2003 ever come ?
Calendar-wise, it might come - if Jesus Christ does not return before then. May He come quick! However, on this side of eternity, as far as politics is concerned in Nigeria, it is the million-dollar question. To answer it, first, a bit of sadness.
18 months into this "nascent democracy", little or nothing has happened to improve the lot of Nigerians. While impeachments, "contractocracy", fist-fights and bribe-cash display occur in the Legislature, world-wide travels, executive interference in the legislature, bannings of freely associated people and a spectacular public caning occur from the presidency.
NEPA is still erratic, personal security of life, limb and liberty is still non-existent, jobs remain a mirage, three-meals-a-day a luxury for most. The people are "shuffering" but certainly not "shmiling." Yet we talk about some elites jockeying and calculating for raw power in Year 2003.
Yet we will have to jump over the hurdle of the 2002 census - which will certainly result into blood on the table if not properly handled. Then the election registration process, party registration process, conventions and choice of candidates will result in BITTER battles, the likes of which that country have never seen, if clear electoral reforms to prevent rigging are not put in place between now and then.
Mind you, the current party chieftains are experts at rigging, and therefore know what kinds of tricks they each played to get to where they are now, and will probably want to prevent others from taking the same advantage of them now that they are re-aligned in different camps. So will we survive the ensuing cataclysm? I am not so sure - unless there is a Sovereign National Conference before then. But let us work and pray.
Have a good Sunday.
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