As such, it is hard to predict what this year may bring for Nigeria politically. Disaster may be more likely than not as most people are still missing the point. Maybe chaos is necessary before Nigeria experiences calm. Maybe this year will mark the end of soldier-come, soldier-go cycle that has yielded nothing but misery for my generation. Maybe Nigeria’s era of misfortune is about to end not with a whimper, but a big bang.
A couple of lazy weeks in the tropics reminded me of what life was in the early 60s in one of the poorest neighbourhoods in Lagos. That was under the old Western Region. By right, education was the few solaces from excruciating poverty. The school was the protection from neighbourhood decay and it was the hope for a better life.
Educational support was abundant. There was discounted public transportation fare for school children. Subsidized nutritious meals and free milk were provided at schools. Medical visits by nurses and doctors from major hospitals were common; plus almost every neighbourhood had a clinic or a maternity centre. Schools had materials, trained teachers and coordinated curriculum. Teachers were paid on time and respected in the neighbourhood.
How things have changed compared to 2000, when I last visited Nigeria. I stopped by my old neighbourhood. I expected it to be poorer and it was. However, the sight of children going to school, carrying their chairs and desks on their heads shocked me. It must be the first day of school when, as it was in my childhood, pupils must scrub clean their ink-stained desks outdoors. No, it was not. Schools no longer had desks and chairs; pupils must bring their desks and chairs from home daily. I realized that children raised in Nigeria from the late 70s onward are perhaps the most damaged by the consistent political problems in Nigeria. Look at the spate of 419ers, drug dealers, credit card fraudsters, real estate flippers, and other criminals. Nigeria has managed to loose a whole generation of children within a decade.
I cite this reminisce to illustrate my frustration over what some are recommending as the solution to the infuriating chronic political problems in Nigeria. The distorted suggestion is that astute and conscionable leadership is the panacea for Nigerian ills. This deceptive position has convinced Nigerians and the world that the endless search for such leadership especially in a seriously flawed democracy is a worthy exercise.
Typical of such preposterous view was “Beyond the State --“Nation” and “Unity”: Nigeria's Requirement is Leadership,” a paper presented by one Dr. Mahmud Tukur at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
In that presentation, Dr. Tukur managed to flunk a correct conclusion after laying a proper foundation. In the section titled “A proper federation”, Dr. Tukur asserted, “Nigeria started as an informal federation during the colonial days.” However, he termed “the phenomenal increase in the power and influence of the centre at the expense of the federal units” as the “unintended but foreseen outcome” of “thirty-six state structure” created by the military under pressure from the moneyed “notables.”
This conclusion misrepresented the political history of Nigeria. The truth is that the military regimes annihilated federalism as we knew it in the 60s. Therefore, the inference that Nigeria’s “successive military governments” reconstructed the federal structure is misleading. It is equally disingenuous to pretend that the slicing of the nation into an infeasible network of states was simply an ill-fated expansion of the federation.
Instead of the deceitful posture, Dr. Tukur should have told his audience that the “’loose’ federation of five big regions” he mentioned in the section, was effectively terminated by the military takeover starting in 1966. The consequent divisions of states, starting with Aguiyi Ironsi, were in furtherance of the military dictatorship, not to strengthen the federal structure. There was no federal structure in Nigeria since 1966.
It is erroneous to believe that Nigeria is federalism because it has a constitution and a civilian government. The constitution glues together autonomous federal units in a proper federalism. The 36 states Nigeria are not autonomous and they predate the Constitution that supposes to glue them together. Simply put, the Constitution was drafted to legitimise the illegal and politically unfeasible structure established by the military governments to replace the authentic federal structure of the 1960s. This is related to the forthcoming presidential elections because people believe that we actually have a constitutional federalism in place.
Nigerians have been led by the nose into accepting that efficient leadership is the only ingredient needed to move the nation forward. That is why the next presidential election may spell doom for Nigeria. Under pressure to return to civilian rule, Nigeria swallowed a fraud believing that political redemption was possible if a reputable civilian leader was elected.
The truth though is that no leader, no matter how dynamic, can be successful under this Constitution. See “It’s the Constitution” for details. Slowly but surely, the drafters of the Constitution have initiated a repeat build-up toward another military takeover (God forbid) or total chaos that would (thankfully?) lead to the final death of Nigeria as we know it.
The recipe for disaster is real. There are two leading candidates. One is Christian Yoruba. The other is Muslim Hausa. As usual, both of them are former military men. The other prospective candidate, a Christian Igbo, was thorough trounced in the primaries by the Christian Yoruba political machinery. He lost again, when he unsuccessfully tried to annul the primaries. Coincidence?
The stage is set. Blind and insensitive cross-accusations are floating already. The South and the East accuse the North of scheming to reclaim the presidency believing it is a birthright. A jihad to implement the Sharia nationwide is surreptitiously afoot, they charge.
The North counters that the South comprises mostly of self-righteous Neanderthals divinely condemned to servitude, not leadership. Their “son-of-the-soil”, the North claims, has had almost four years of lackluster performance. He does not deserve another.
The East and other minorities feel underestimated, marginalized, and brutalized by internal wrangling and lack of direction.
Have we not seen this picture before? This is the overwhelmingly proof that the elections would satisfy no one, not even those who manage to win. No matter how fair the elections, there will be allegations of electoral fraud and rigging. One party or the other would wonder how the winner managed to win in the face of “contrary indications.” Lawsuits will be filed to challenge the results. Ethnic riots will begin. The military would have the excuse to intervene. The vicious political cycle will begin all over again.
I have stated before that the plan of those responsible for the Constitution was to render the nation ungovernable by the civilians in order to make a possible return of the military more acceptable. It bewilders me that scholars such as Dr. Tukur would ignore this possibility.
Otherwise, why was no one allowed to see the Constitution until shortly before the swearing of successful candidates in 2000.
Why would the Constitution impose former heads of state as advisors to a sitting president?
Why would the Constitution allow an easy impeachment of the president on frivolous subjective standards?
Why would divisive issues such as the Sharia be allowed in a Constitution?
Why would the Constitution usurp the powers of the states it did not create in the first place?
Why would a state not be allowed to collect and spend its own revenues?
These and many more questions should be examined to grasp the real intention behind the Constitution that Nigerians were so eager to embrace.
Now that some of us have realized how bad is this Constitution, should we not fix it appropriately before dealing with the quality of leadership? With a dynamic constitution such as in the U.S., any moron could govern a federal nation. Look at GW! With the Nigerian Constitution, it is clear that not a combination of Newton, Einstein, Hawking, Soyinka, Emeagwali or any other known geniuses, could successfully govern Nigeria. The colossal constitutional constraints definitely make Nigeria ungovernable.
Unless we return to the system that served us so well before the misadventure of young and naïve military boys in 1966, Nigeria will continue in woe.
Back to the April elections, we may end with an Ivory Coast, instead of a Kenya, resulting in international intervention and negotiations. Many lives may be lost. I hope I am wrong. If not, let me welcome you to Anno Horribilis.